The supposed triumph of western liberal values in the 1990s – the ‘end of history’ – now rings hollow indeed
It would be reassuring to think that if Russia moved to intervene militarily in Belarus – as it did in Ukraine and Georgia – the EU, the US and Nato would finally draw a line. Vladimir Putin would be firmly told: “Not again. Enough of your overt aggression, covert operations, ‘little green men’, cyber attacks, poll meddling and assassinations. If you really want a new cold war with the west, then we’re ready – and just like last time, Russia will lose.”
Reassuring, but unrealistic. As last week’s EU response to the popular uprising in Belarus made clear, a primary concern of Europe’s leaders is to avoid antagonising Russia’s president. True, they told Putin not to interfere. But in return, they promised not to interfere themselves. “The EU stands in solidarity with the people of Belarus,” they said. Solidarity turned out to mean limited sanctions and backing for a “national dialogue” already rejected by the regime.
For courageous protesters in Minsk seeking an end to dictatorship, Europe’s caution must surely be a great disappointment. It is often said that most Belarusians are content to stick close to Russia. This proposition warrants closer examination. A 2019 survey found 89% of respondents have a positive or neutral opinion of the EU. Trust levels are high. This month’s stolen election was not a vote to join Europe. But it was a vote for Europe’s values.
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