New research confirms that a lack of spectators changes the expected course of matches
What difference does banning spectators from pandemic-era sports matches make? Quite a bit, concludes new research. First, fewer people catch Covid-19. A US study on basketball and ice hockey games finds one big indoor match before bans increased deaths by a staggering 9% in nearby areas. No shock, Sherlock – but, remember, we packed 251,000 people into Cheltenham race course during that same period of early March.
Less life-and-death research shows that playing spectator-less football matches has other impacts: it changes the course of matches themselves. Using data from 6,481 matches played before and after the mid-season shutdown in 17 countries, it finds that the removal of fans reduces home advantage by narrowing the gap in the number of yellow cards for away teams compared with home teams by a third. Why? Fan absence lessens pressure on referees to punish away teams more harshly.
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